Signals Consumer Comfort Highest in Six Months

Signals Consumer Comfort Highest in Six Months Consumer confidence in the U.S. last week reached the highest level since July as the improving job market helped allay pessimism. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was minus 44.7 in the period ended Jan. 8 from minus 44.8 the prior week. As recently as October, the index registered its lowest readings since the 2007-2009 recession, making 2011 the second-worst year in 25 years of data. It's since increased in four of the past five weeks. 'Considering where it's been, the trend is a welcome one,' Gary Langer, president of Langer Research Associates LLC in New York, which compiles the index for Bloomberg, said in a statement. 'Sentiment is hardly on a predictable path, given factors including the uncertainty of the 2012 presidential election, volatility in global markets and economic question marks from Europe to China.' Less unemployment and growing payrolls may be lifting consumers' moods, providing the spark for increases in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Nonetheless, gasoline prices that are once again rising and wage gains that fail to keep pace with inflation may be obstacles to greater improvement in confidence. Other reports today showed retail sales rose less than forecast in December and claims for jobless benefits climbed more than projected in the first week of the year. Retail Sales Purchases increased 0.1 percent last month after a 0.4 percent advance in November that was more than initially reported, Commerce Department figures showed. Economists forecast a 0.3 percent December rise, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Purchases excluding automobiles fell 0.2 percent, the first decline since May 2010. The number of applications for unemployment benefits climbed by 24,000 to 399,000 in the week ended Jan. 7, Labor Department figures showed. The median forecast of 46 economists in a Bloomberg survey projected 375,000. Stocks rose as sales of government securities in Spain and Italy eased concern the countries would struggle to finance their debts. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 0.1 percent to 1,293.76 at 9:40 a.m. in New York. The comfort survey's gauge of Americans' views of the current state of the economy rose to minus 82.1 last week from minus 82.9 in the prior period. The buying climate index held at minus 49.4, and the measure of personal finances decreased to minus 2.6 from minus 2.2. The gain in the cumulative Bloomberg index last week was within the survey's three-point margin of error. More Jobs Better employment opportunities are probably holding up confidence. Payrolls increased by 200,000 in December, and the jobless rate dropped to 8.5 percent, the lowest since February 2009, a Labor Department report showed last week. Employers added 1.64 million workers in 2011, surpassing the prior year's 940,000 advance and the biggest gain since 2006. Sentiment has been improving among lower-income Americans. The index for those earning less than $15,000 per year increased to the highest level since October, and those making up to $24,999 were the most optimistic since February. The ebbing of pessimism was also evident among older households. The measure of confidence among those older than 65 rose to minus 39.9, the best reading since April. Brighter moods may help drive consumer spending in 2012 following the holiday shopping season. 'Extremely Pleased' 'We are extremely pleased with our December sales results as we significantly exceeded our expectations,' Sherry Lang, a spokeswoman for TJX Cos. said in Jan. 5 conference call. Sales at the Framingham, Massachusetts-based retailer increased 8 percent last month. 'Further, we entered January with very lean inventories and the flexibility to ship fresh merchandise at great values to our stores.' The gain in the Bloomberg index parallels improvement in other surveys. The Conference Board's confidence gauge increased in December to the highest level since April. That same month the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer confidence rose to the highest level since June. Nonetheless, rising gasoline prices may constrain sentiment. The cost of a regular gallon of fuel at the pump climbed to $3.38 yesterday, up 5.5 percent from a 10-month low reached on Dec. 20, according to data from AAA, the nation's largest auto group. 'While the recent trend in consumer confidence is encouraging, risks remain,' said Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York. 'The recent rise in gasoline prices is likely to act as a restraint on improving consumer confidence in January.' Annual Averages Bloomberg's comfort index, which began in December 1985, averaged minus 46.8 for all of last year, second only to 2009's minus 47.9 as the worst year on record. The gauge averaged minus 45.7 for 2010. The Consumer Comfort Index is based on responses to telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,000 consumers 18 years old and over. Each week, 250 respondents are asked for their views on the economy, personal finances and buying climate; the percentage of negative responses for each measure is subtracted from the share of positive views. The results are then summed and divided by three. The most recent reading is based on the average of responses over the previous four weeks. The comfort index can range from 100, indicating every participant in the survey had a positive response to all three components, to minus 100, signaling all views were negative. Field work for the index is done by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions in Media, Pennsylvania. To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Kowalski in Washington at akowalski13@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net

Earn Is the Euro Decoupling From U.S. Stocks?

Earn Is the Euro Decoupling From U.S. Stocks? Companies: EUR/USD S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite RELATED QUOTES Symbol Price Change EURUSD=X 1.2832 +0.0123 ^GSPC 1,291.87 -0.61 ^IXIC 2,715.73 +4.97 ^DJI 12,432.35 -17.10 FXE 127.78 +1.22 For much of the last 15 years the S&P 500 and euro (the EU currency) have been moving in the same direction. Since its May 4, 2011 high (the euro topped two days after U.S. stocks) the euro has tumbled 15%. Worse yet, the euro has been falling over the past few weeks even though the S&P has remained stable. Will the S&P soon catch up with the euro, or is the euro about to decouple its positive correlation with U.S. equities? Euro Problems Euro problems are the reason for the bad euro season. U.S. stocks got to enjoy the Santa Claus Rally while the euro was stuck with debt concerns that include: - Eurozone governments need to refinance more than $1.3 trillion in debt in 2012. - Yields on Italian bonds crept up about 7% again (above 7% yields send Greece into a tailspin). - Standard & Poor's is expected to strip France of its AAA rating as early as this month. - Spain's banks need to raise an extra $65 billion to cover bad property loans. - In February, Italy needs to sell more debt than could be covered even if investors used all the proceeds of maturing securities to buy the bonds. Euro Hope Things are so bad for the euro (EURUSD=X), they are good. So it seems at least. The chart below shows the euro holdings of the 'smart' and 'dumb' money published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The first gray graph shows total non-reportable short positions. Non-reportable are small traders considered the dumb money. The second gray graph shows reportable commercial short positions. Commercial traders are the 'pros' that actually provide a commodity or instrument and are considered the smart money. The data shows that non-reportable short positions are pretty high right now (data as of Tuesday) while commercial traders have closed nearly all their short positions. Based on COT sentiment data, the euro should be close to a bottom, at least a temporary one. Cause for U.S. Stock Rally? But wouldn't a rising euro translate into rising U.S. stocks? Under normal circumstances, yes it would. A look at the chart below shows that a rising euro usually correlates with a rising S&P 500. The red boxes highlight periods of falling euro and rising S&P (such as lately). The green box identifies a period of time when a rising euro (NYSEArca: FXE - News) coincided with falling (even rapidly falling) U.S. stock prices. This happened from October 2007 - July 2008. Putting Odds in Your Favor It's no secret that I declared the rally from the October lows to be a counter trend rally. Back on October 2, I stated via the ETF Profit Strategy updated that: 'I don't think October will 'kill' this bear market, but it should spur a powerful counter trend rally. Towards the end of this rally Wall Street may applaud the Fed for launching Operation Twist and QE3 may be considered unnecessary. This kind of positive environment would be fertile soil for the next bear market leg (Q1 or Q2 2012). From a technical point of view this counter trend rally should end somewhere around 1,275 - 1,300.' To identify high-probability trade setups, I like to see technicals, sentiment, and seasonality point in the same direction, such as they did in early October. From a seasonal perspective, October has the reputation of a 'bear market killer.' Sentiment polls showed the most bearish readings in over a year and the VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) was close to the 2010 high. At the same time, the S&P had reached rock bottom support. Based on the weight of evidence, the October 2 ETF Profit Strategy update also predicted that: 'The ideal market bottom would see the S&P dip below 1,088 intraday followed by a strong recovery and a close above 1,088.' On October 4, the S&P briefly dipped below 1,088 and closed the day at 1,124. A massive counter trend rally was born that day. The Next Setup? Seasonality is once again turning bearish (or at the very least less bullish). Since 2002, the S&P reached a January top followed by a drop greater than 8% five (out of ten) times. 51.1% of all investment advisors and newsletter-writing colleagues (polled by II) are bullish on stocks (the highest reading since May 3) while only 17% of individual investors (polled by AAII) are bearish, the second lowest reading in six years. From a technical point of view, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC - News) is about to reach a daunting resistance cluster comprised of Fibonacci levels and various long and short-term trend lines. The Dow (DJI: ^DJI - News) is about to encounter two trend lines that go back nearly five years. The resistance clusters for the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC - News), Russell 2000 (NYSEArca: IJR - News), and financials (NYSEArca: XLF - News) are not as glaring but they're there. The only thing that doesn't quite fit into the equation is the euro's sentiment data illustrated above. Nevertheless, the weight of evidence suggests that a turnaround for stocks, and possibly another significant market top, may be just around the corner. The high probability strategy is to short U.S. stocks as soon as the resistance cluster is reached or support is broken. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter identifies the target of this rally along with a short, mid and long-term outlook and the corresponding ETF profit strategies.

Earn Top 5 Global Mutual Funds

Earn Top 5 Global Mutual Funds Companies: Thornburg Global Opportunities A Artio Global Equity A Oppenheimer Global Opportunities A RELATED QUOTES Symbol Price Change THOAX 14.34 0.00 BJGQX 33.60 -0.06 OPGIX 27.86 +0.50 MWOFX 24.77 -0.12 ICDAX 11.66 +0.06 The fortunes of U.S. equity markets continue to be a key determinant of the health of the global economy. However, their dominance has receded significantly over the years and a world of exciting opportunities has emerged in global markets. Moreover, research has shown that a portfolio with a combination of domestic and foreign securities produces greater returns over the long term. Global funds allow investors to hold an optimum combination of international and domestic investments without incurring the costs of holding such securities individually. Below we will share with you 5 top rated global mutual funds. Each has earned a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) as we expect these mutual funds to outperform their peers in the future. To view the Zacks Rank and past performance of all global funds, then click here. Thornburg Global Opportunities A (NASDAQ:THOAX - News) seeks capital growth over the long term. The fund invests in a wide range of equity securities worldwide. This includes common and preferred stocks, real estate investment trusts and other equity trusts. The global mutual fund has a five year annualized return of 2.1%. The global mutual fund has a minimum initial investment of $5,000 and an expense ratio of 1.48% compared to a category average of 1.44%. Artio Global Equity A (NASDAQ:BJGQX - News) invests the majority of its assets in companies worldwide. Under normal circumstances, not less than 40% of its assets are invested in at least three foreign countries. A maximum of 35% of its assets may be utilized to purchase emerging market securities. The global mutual fund has a three year annualized return of 10.04%. Rudolph-Riad Younes is the fund manager and he has managed this global mutual fund since 2004. Oppenheimer Global Opportunities A (NASDAQ:OPGIX - News) seeks capital growth as well as current income. The fund invests in a wide range of equity securities worldwide. The fund focuses on acquiring stocks, but may also purchase debt securities. The global mutual fund has a ten year annualized return of 8.53%. As of November 2011, this global mutual fund held 100 issues, with 5.24% of its total assets invested in Advanced Micro Devices Inc. MFS Global Growth A (NASDAQ:MWOFX - News) invests in both domestic and foreign securities, as well as emerging market securities. The fund may invest a substantial part of its assets in a relatively small number of countries. The global mutual fund returned 2.36% in the last one year period. The global mutual fund has a minimum initial investment of $1,000 and an expense ratio of 1.53% compared to a category average of 1.44%. Ivy Cundill Global Value A (ICDAX) seeks capital growth. The fund purchases both domestic and foreign equity securities. Not more than 20% of its assets are invested in debt securities issued by companies which have filed for bankruptcy or are likely to do so shortly. The global mutual fund has a three year annualized return of 8.15%. The fund manager is James Thompson and he has managed this global mutual fund since 2009. To view the Zacks Rank and past performance of all global mutual funds, then click here. About Zacks Mutual Fund Rank By applying the Zacks Rank to mutual funds, investors can find funds that not only outpaced the market in the past but are also expected to outperform going forward. Learn more about the Zacks Mutual Fund Rank at http://www.zacks.com/funds.

Oil Consumer Comfort Highest in Six Months

Oil Consumer Comfort Highest in Six Months Consumer confidence in the U.S. last week reached the highest level since July as the improving job market helped allay pessimism. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was minus 44.7 in the period ended Jan. 8 from minus 44.8 the prior week. As recently as October, the index registered its lowest readings since the 2007-2009 recession, making 2011 the second-worst year in 25 years of data. It's since increased in four of the past five weeks. 'Considering where it's been, the trend is a welcome one,' Gary Langer, president of Langer Research Associates LLC in New York, which compiles the index for Bloomberg, said in a statement. 'Sentiment is hardly on a predictable path, given factors including the uncertainty of the 2012 presidential election, volatility in global markets and economic question marks from Europe to China.' Less unemployment and growing payrolls may be lifting consumers' moods, providing the spark for increases in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Nonetheless, gasoline prices that are once again rising and wage gains that fail to keep pace with inflation may be obstacles to greater improvement in confidence. Other reports today showed retail sales rose less than forecast in December and claims for jobless benefits climbed more than projected in the first week of the year. Retail Sales Purchases increased 0.1 percent last month after a 0.4 percent advance in November that was more than initially reported, Commerce Department figures showed. Economists forecast a 0.3 percent December rise, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Purchases excluding automobiles fell 0.2 percent, the first decline since May 2010. The number of applications for unemployment benefits climbed by 24,000 to 399,000 in the week ended Jan. 7, Labor Department figures showed. The median forecast of 46 economists in a Bloomberg survey projected 375,000. Stocks rose as sales of government securities in Spain and Italy eased concern the countries would struggle to finance their debts. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 0.1 percent to 1,293.76 at 9:40 a.m. in New York. The comfort survey's gauge of Americans' views of the current state of the economy rose to minus 82.1 last week from minus 82.9 in the prior period. The buying climate index held at minus 49.4, and the measure of personal finances decreased to minus 2.6 from minus 2.2. The gain in the cumulative Bloomberg index last week was within the survey's three-point margin of error. More Jobs Better employment opportunities are probably holding up confidence. Payrolls increased by 200,000 in December, and the jobless rate dropped to 8.5 percent, the lowest since February 2009, a Labor Department report showed last week. Employers added 1.64 million workers in 2011, surpassing the prior year's 940,000 advance and the biggest gain since 2006. Sentiment has been improving among lower-income Americans. The index for those earning less than $15,000 per year increased to the highest level since October, and those making up to $24,999 were the most optimistic since February. The ebbing of pessimism was also evident among older households. The measure of confidence among those older than 65 rose to minus 39.9, the best reading since April. Brighter moods may help drive consumer spending in 2012 following the holiday shopping season. 'Extremely Pleased' 'We are extremely pleased with our December sales results as we significantly exceeded our expectations,' Sherry Lang, a spokeswoman for TJX Cos. said in Jan. 5 conference call. Sales at the Framingham, Massachusetts-based retailer increased 8 percent last month. 'Further, we entered January with very lean inventories and the flexibility to ship fresh merchandise at great values to our stores.' The gain in the Bloomberg index parallels improvement in other surveys. The Conference Board's confidence gauge increased in December to the highest level since April. That same month the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer confidence rose to the highest level since June. Nonetheless, rising gasoline prices may constrain sentiment. The cost of a regular gallon of fuel at the pump climbed to $3.38 yesterday, up 5.5 percent from a 10-month low reached on Dec. 20, according to data from AAA, the nation's largest auto group. 'While the recent trend in consumer confidence is encouraging, risks remain,' said Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York. 'The recent rise in gasoline prices is likely to act as a restraint on improving consumer confidence in January.' Annual Averages Bloomberg's comfort index, which began in December 1985, averaged minus 46.8 for all of last year, second only to 2009's minus 47.9 as the worst year on record. The gauge averaged minus 45.7 for 2010. The Consumer Comfort Index is based on responses to telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,000 consumers 18 years old and over. Each week, 250 respondents are asked for their views on the economy, personal finances and buying climate; the percentage of negative responses for each measure is subtracted from the share of positive views. The results are then summed and divided by three. The most recent reading is based on the average of responses over the previous four weeks. The comfort index can range from 100, indicating every participant in the survey had a positive response to all three components, to minus 100, signaling all views were negative. Field work for the index is done by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions in Media, Pennsylvania. To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Kowalski in Washington at akowalski13@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net

Signals Europe downgrade fears make Treasurys a hot buy

Signals Investors are snapping up Treasurys and ditching European debt after news reports that France's credit rating could be downgraded on Friday. Several news outlets, citing unnamed sources, said Standard & Poor's was about to cut the credit rating of France and other European countries. In another fretful sign, U.S. exports to Europe plunged nearly 6 percent in November. Traders dumped higher-risk investments such as stocks and debt issued by European nations, causing borrowing costs for Italy and others to rise. If Italy risks defaulting on its debts, the crisis throughout Europe would worsen dramatically. The price of the 10-year Treasury note leaped 66 cents per $100 invested, pushing its yield down to 1.86 percent at 11 a.m. Eastern time. The yield peaked at 1.94 percent earlier Friday.

Forex Europe downgrade fears make Treasurys a hot buy

Forex Investors are snapping up Treasurys and ditching European debt after news reports that France's credit rating could be downgraded on Friday. Several news outlets, citing unnamed sources, said Standard & Poor's was about to cut the credit rating of France and other European countries. In another fretful sign, U.S. exports to Europe plunged nearly 6 percent in November. Traders dumped higher-risk investments such as stocks and debt issued by European nations, causing borrowing costs for Italy and others to rise. If Italy risks defaulting on its debts, the crisis throughout Europe would worsen dramatically. The price of the 10-year Treasury note leaped 66 cents per $100 invested, pushing its yield down to 1.86 percent at 11 a.m. Eastern time. The yield peaked at 1.94 percent earlier Friday.

Forex For Europe, Few Options in a Vicious Cycle of Debt

Forex For Europe, Few Options in a Vicious Cycle of Debt Europe has a $1 trillion problem. As difficult as the last two years have been for Europe, 2012 could be even tougher. Each week, countries will need to sell billions of dollars of bonds - a staggering $1 trillion in total - to replace existing debt and cover their current budget deficits. At any point, should banks, pensions and other big investors balk, anxiety could course through the markets, making government officials feel like they are stuck in a scary financial remake of 'Groundhog Day.' Even if governments attract investors at reasonable interest rates one month, they will have to repeat the process again the next month - and signs of skittish buyers could make each sale harder to manage than the previous one. 'The headline risk is enormous,' said Nick Firoozye, chief European rates strategist at Nomura International in London. Given this vicious cycle, policy makers and investors are closely watching the debt auctions for potential weakness. On Thursday, Spain is set to sell as much as 5 billion euros ($6.3 billion) of government bonds. Italy follows on Friday with an auction of more than $9 billion. The current challenge for Europe is to keep Italy and Spain from ending up like Greece and Portugal, whose borrowing costs rose so high last year that it signaled real likelihood of default, making it impossible for the governments to find buyers for their debt. Since then, Greece and Portugal have been reliant on the financial backing of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The intense focus on the sovereign debt auctions - and their importance to the broader economy - starkly underscores the difference between European and American responses to their crises. Since 2008, there has been almost no private sector interest to buy new United States residential mortgage loans, the financial asset at the root of the country's crisis. To make up for that lack of investor demand, the federal government has bought and guaranteed hundreds of billions of dollars of new mortgages. In Europe, policy makers are still expecting private sector buyers to acquire the majority of government debt. Last month, in perhaps the boldest move of the crisis, the European Central Bank lent $620 billion to banks for up to three years at a rate of 1 percent. Some officials had hoped that these cheap loans would spur demand for government debt. The idea is that financial institutions would be able to make a tidy profit by borrowing from the central bank at 1 percent and using the money to buy government bonds that have a higher yield, like Spain's 10-year bond at 5.5 percent. But the sovereign debt markets continue to show signs of stress. Italy's 10-year government bond has fallen in price, lifting its yield to more than 7 percent, a level that shows investors remain worried about the financial strength of Italy's government. And European banks appear to be hoarding much of the money they borrowed from the central bank, rather than lending it to governments. Money deposited by banks at the European Central Bank, where it remains idle, stands at $617 billion, up from $425 billion just a month ago. 'It's hard to see why a banker would want to tie up money in a European sovereign for, say, three years,' said Phillip L. Swagel at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy, who served as assistant secretary for economic policy under Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. Italy's troubles highlight how hard it is to generate demand for a deluge of new debt from a dwindling pool of investors. The country needs to issue as much as $305 billion of debt this year, the highest in the euro zone. By comparison, France, with the second highest total, needs to auction $243 billion of new debt, according to estimates by Nomura. Governments like Italy's are at the mercy of markets because they simply don't have the cash to pay off even some of their bonds that come due. They must issue new bonds to cover their old debts, as well as their budget deficits, at a time when investors are growing scarce. Banks, traditionally big holders of government bonds, have been selling Italian debt. 'We've seen a lot of liquidation by non-European investors,' said Laurent Fransolet, head of European interest rate strategy at Barclays Capital in London. For instance, Nomura Holdings in Japan slashed its Italian debt holdings, mostly government bonds, to $467 million on Nov. 24, from $2.8 billion at the end of Sept. European banks have also been dumping the debt. BNP Paribas, a French bank, cut its exposure to Italian government bonds to $15.5 billion at the end of October, from $26 billion at the end of June. Italian banks, though large owners of their government's obligations, may not want to take on too much more, to keep their investors happy. Shares in UniCredit have fallen more than 40 percent since last week as the Italian firm has tried to raise capital to comply with new regulations. There are ways to avoid spectacularly bad debt auctions, at least in the short term. The central bank can help by buying a country's bonds in the market ahead of a new debt sale. That would help bolster prices at the auction, or at least keep them stable. There is also some evidence that banks' government-bond selling may have abated at the end of last year, according to Mr. Fransolet. Central bank figures show European financial firms acquired $2.4 billion of Spanish government bonds in November, after selling a monthly average of $4.8 billion in the preceding three months. Governments may also be able to attract new buyers to their bond markets. Belgium sold $7.2 billion of government bonds to local retail investors last month, in part appealing to their patriotism. Opportunistic hedge funds, betting the market is too pessimistic about certain European countries, may also bite. Saba Capital Management, a New York-based hedge fund headed by the former Deutsche Bank trader Boaz Weinstein, owns Italian government bonds, though it does so as part of a wider trading strategy that includes bets that could pay off if Europe's problems worsen. But it is doubtful that Italy and Spain can find enough new buyers this year to bring their bond yields down to sustainable levels. Instead, if their economies slow - and if their governments become unpopular - debt auctions could fail and their cost of borrowing could rise even more. All eyes would then turn to the central bank for drastic action. It could lend more cheap money to banks, in the hope that some of it might find its way into government bonds. Or it could become a big buyer of government bonds itself, printing euros to finance the purchases. But that may not be a lasting solution, since the central bank's actions could scare off private investors. Typically, when government-backed organizations like the central bank hold a country's debt, their claims on the debtor rank higher than those of other creditors. For that reason, private investors might think their holdings would fall in value if the central bank became a big owner of Italian debt - and they might retreat. At the same time, the crisis response in the United States did not depend solely on government-backed entities like the Federal Reserve to buy housing loans. Professor Swagel of the University of Maryland points out that banks and investors also took large losses on existing housing debt. While painful, the mortgage debt proved less of a drag on the financial system. So far, Europe has been averse to taking permanent losses on government bonds. Except in the case of Greek debt, European policy makers have shied away from any plan that could mean private holders of government debt get hurt. However, Nouriel Roubini, a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University, recently argued in a Financial Times editorial that Italy's debt should be reduced to 90 percent of the gross domestic product from 120 percent. In such a situation, investors might suffer a 25 percent hit on the value of their Italian bonds, he said. Such haircuts might seem like the recipe for more instability right now. But if Europe struggles to find buyers for its debt, more radical options are likely to be considered. Europe's debt problem is huge, and the experience in the United States suggests dealing with it may take several, more drastic approaches. 'If you go halfway, you'll never get to the end,' Professor Swagel said. 'And that describes European policy-making.'

Earn Europe hit by downgrade speculation

Earn ROME (AP) -- Europe's ability to fight off its debt crisis was again thrown into doubt Friday when the euro hit its lowest level in over a year and borrowing costs rose on expectations that the debt of several countries would be downgraded by rating agency Standard & Poor's. Stock markets in Europe and the U.S. plunged late Friday when reports of an imminent downgrade first appeared and the euro fell to a 17-month low. The fears of a downgrade brought a sour end to a mildly encouraging week for Europe's heavily indebted nations and were a stark reminder that the 17-country eurozone's debt crisis is far from over. Earlier Friday, Italy had capped a strong week for government debt auctions, seeing its borrowing costs drop for a second day in a row as it successfully raised as much as €4.75 billion ($6.05 billion). Spain and Italy completed successful bond auctions on Thursday, and European Central Bank president Mario Draghi noted 'tentative signs of stabilization' in the region's economy. A credit downgrade would escalate the threats to Europe's fragile financial system, as the costs at which the affected countries — some of which are already struggling with heavy debt loads and low growth — could borrow money would be driven even higher. The downgrade could drive up the cost of European government debt as investors demand more compensation for holding bonds deemed to be riskier than they had been. Higher borrowing costs would put more financial pressure on countries already contending with heavy debt burdens. In Greece, negotiations Friday to get investors to take a voluntary cut on their Greek bond holdings appeared close to collapse, raising the specter of a potentially disastrous default by the country that kicked off Europe's financial troubles more than two years ago. The deal, known as the Private Sector Involvement, aims to reduce Greece's debt by €100 billion ($127.8 billion) by swapping private creditors' bonds with new ones with a lower value, and is a key part of a €130 billion ($166 billion) international bailout. Without it, the country could suffer a catastrophic bankruptcy that would send shock waves through the global economy. Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos met on Thursday and Friday with representatives of the Institute of International Finance, a global body representing the private bondholders. Finance ministry officials from the eurozone also met in Brussels Thursday night. 'Unfortunately, despite the efforts of Greece's leadership, the proposal put forward ... which involves an unprecedented 50 percent nominal reduction of Greece's sovereign bonds in private investors' hands and up to €100 billion of debt forgiveness — has not produced a constructive consolidated response by all parties, consistent with a voluntary exchange of Greek sovereign debt,' the IIF said in a statement. 'Under the circumstances, discussions with Greece and the official sector are paused for reflection on the benefits of a voluntary approach,' it said. Friday's Italian auction saw investors demanding an interest rate of 4.83 percent to lend Italy three-year money, down from an average rate of 5.62 percent in the previous auction and far lower than the 7.89 percent in November, when the country's financial crisis was most acute. While Italy paid a slightly higher rate for bonds maturing in 2018, which were also sold in Friday's auction, demand was between 1.2 percent and 2.2 percent higher than what was on offer. The results were not as strong as those of bond auctions the previous day, when Italy raised €12 billion ($15 billion) and Spain saw huge demand for its own debt sale. 'Overall, it underscores that while all the auctions in the eurozone have been battle victories, the war is a long way from being resolved (either way),' said Marc Ostwald, strategist at Monument Securities. 'These euro area auctions will continue to present themselves as market risk events for a very protracted period.' Italy's €1.9 trillion ($2.42 trillion) in government debt and heavy borrowing needs this year have made it a focal point of the European debt crisis. Italy has passed austerity measures and is on a structural reform course that Premier Mario Monti claims should bring down Italy's high bond yields, which he says are no longer warranted. Analysts have said the successful recent bond auctions were at least in part the work of the ECB, which has inundated banks with cheap loans, giving them ready cash that at least some appear to be using to buy higher-yielding short-term government bonds. Some 523 banks took €489 billion in credit for up to three years at a current interest cost of 1 percent.

Signals 5 Unusual Sales Taxes You Need To Avoid

Signals 5 Unusual Sales Taxes You Need To Avoid With the economy still struggling, states are getting fairly crafty with how they charge consumers via sales taxes. It's no secret that dubious, yet all-too enforceable government laws have been with us since the dawn of the civilized world. In ancient Egypt, the pharaohs taxed cooking oil – of course, the main seller of cooking oil was the pharaoh. During the first century AD, the Roman empire taxed urine – a popular source of ammonia for common tasks like tanning hides and cleaning clothes. Then at the height of the Dark Ages (an era in European history notorious for its poor hygiene), some European governments taxed the sale of soap! Unfortunately, onerous and unusual state taxes are still very much with us. What are some of the biggest offenders – and are they active in your state? Here's our top five: Food Packaging Tax States like Colorado have a weird definition of what constitutes food packaging. In using the term 'essential' in its tax language for such commodities, Colorado finds itself in the strange position of taxing paper cup lids and napkins, but not paper cups or fast-food French fry containers. Hot Air Balloon Tax If you're in Kansas and in the mood to take a ride in a hot air balloon, beware of the state government's 'amusement' tax. State regulation makes balloon rides taxable. But there is a caveat – only balloon rides that are tied, or tethered to the ground, are considered taxable. So, if you want to avoid paying taxes when taking a balloon ride over Topeka, make sure to leave the rope at home! Careful on That Bagel New York State has an interesting way of handling bagels – and taxes on buying bagels. If you want to eat a bagel tax-free, don't have the deli counter 'prepare' it for you (i.e., add cream cheese or cut the bagel in two pieces). Prepare that bagel yourself, and you don't have to pay a tax on it. Wet Fuse In West Virginia, celebrating the Fourth of July – or any celebration where fireworks are used, can lighten your wallet. The state has a special tax – on top of its 6% sales tax – on things like ladyfingers and sparklers. Fruit Cakes California has gone bananas over the purchase of fruit by consumers. If you buy an apple from a regular retailer, you're in good shape, as the purchase is tax-exempt. If you buy fruit from a vending machine – and who hasn't done that – you'll pay an additional 33% on the amount of the purchase. Maybe the most egregious case of over-taxation on a state level comes from Pennsylvania, where the commonwealth actually taxes the use of air (on carwash vacuum cleaners). The Bottom Line The above taxes certainly aren't the only taxes on statewide level, but they are surely among the most unique. This site has a more complete list of sales taxes in all 50 states: http://retirementliving.com/RLtaxes.html .

Signals France loses AAA-rating in blow to eurozone

Signals PARIS (AP) -- France's finance ministry says Standard & Poor's has cut the country's credit rating by one notch to AA. France's loss of its AAA-rating deals a heavy blow to the eurozone's ability to fight off its debt crisis. The country is the second-largest contributor to the currency union's bailout fund. S&P in December put 15 eurozone countries on creditwatch and other downgrades were expected later Friday. The cut in France's creditworthiness could also hurt President Nicolas Sarkozy's re-election chances. THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below. ROME (AP) -- Europe's ability to fight off its debt crisis was again thrown into doubt Friday when the euro hit its lowest level in over a year and borrowing costs rose on expectations that the debt of several countries would be downgraded by rating agency Standard & Poor's. Stock markets in Europe and the U.S. plunged late Friday when reports of an imminent downgrade first appeared and the euro fell to a 17-month low. The fears of a downgrade brought a sour end to a mildly encouraging week for Europe's heavily indebted nations and were a stark reminder that the 17-country eurozone's debt crisis is far from over. Earlier Friday, Italy had capped a strong week for government debt auctions, seeing its borrowing costs drop for a second day in a row as it successfully raised as much as euro4.75 billion ($6.05 billion). Spain and Italy completed successful bond auctions on Thursday, and European Central Bank president Mario Draghi noted 'tentative signs of stabilization' in the region's economy. A credit downgrade would escalate the threats to Europe's fragile financial system, as the costs at which the affected countries — some of which are already struggling with heavy debt loads and low growth — could borrow money would be driven even higher. The downgrade could drive up the cost of European government debt as investors demand more compensation for holding bonds deemed to be riskier than they had been. Higher borrowing costs would put more financial pressure on countries already contending with heavy debt burdens. In Greece, negotiations Friday to get investors to take a voluntary cut on their Greek bond holdings appeared close to collapse, raising the specter of a potentially disastrous default by the country that kicked off Europe's financial troubles more than two years ago. The deal, known as the Private Sector Involvement, aims to reduce Greece's debt by euro100 billion ($127.8 billion) by swapping private creditors' bonds with new ones with a lower value, and is a key part of a euro130 billion ($166 billion) international bailout. Without it, the country could suffer a catastrophic bankruptcy that would send shock waves through the global economy. Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos met on Thursday and Friday with representatives of the Institute of International Finance, a global body representing the private bondholders. Finance ministry officials from the eurozone also met in Brussels Thursday night. 'Unfortunately, despite the efforts of Greece's leadership, the proposal put forward ... which involves an unprecedented 50 percent nominal reduction of Greece's sovereign bonds in private investors' hands and up to euro100 billion of debt forgiveness — has not produced a constructive consolidated response by all parties, consistent with a voluntary exchange of Greek sovereign debt,' the IIF said in a statement. 'Under the circumstances, discussions with Greece and the official sector are paused for reflection on the benefits of a voluntary approach,' it said. Friday's Italian auction saw investors demanding an interest rate of 4.83 percent to lend Italy three-year money, down from an average rate of 5.62 percent in the previous auction and far lower than the 7.89 percent in November, when the country's financial crisis was most acute. While Italy paid a slightly higher rate for bonds maturing in 2018, which were also sold in Friday's auction, demand was between 1.2 percent and 2.2 percent higher than what was on offer. The results were not as strong as those of bond auctions the previous day, when Italy raised euro12 billion ($15 billion) and Spain saw huge demand for its own debt sale. 'Overall, it underscores that while all the auctions in the eurozone have been battle victories, the war is a long way from being resolved (either way),' said Marc Ostwald, strategist at Monument Securities. 'These euro area auctions will continue to present themselves as market risk events for a very protracted period.' Italy's euro1.9 trillion ($2.42 trillion) in government debt and heavy borrowing needs this year have made it a focal point of the European debt crisis. Italy has passed austerity measures and is on a structural reform course that Premier Mario Monti claims should bring down Italy's high bond yields, which he says are no longer warranted. Analysts have said the successful recent bond auctions were at least in part the work of the ECB, which has inundated banks with cheap loans, giving them ready cash that at least some appear to be using to buy higher-yielding short-term government bonds. Some 523 banks took euro489 billion in credit for up to three years at a current interest cost of 1 percent. ___ Steinhauser contributed from Brussels. AP Business writer David McHugh in Frankfurt contributed.

Forex How the Election and Economy Will Impact Your Portfolio

Forex There's plenty of data to help handicap the market during Presidential election years and it happens to be siding on the investor's team when it comes to an incumbent up for re-election. Jeffrey Hirsch, the editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac crunched those numbers and says since the beginning of the Dow in 1896, an incumbent president has run for re-election 19 times; 14 of those were up years for the DJIA. 'Just the fact that there's somebody in office running again is a good sign for the year — 9% on average — what happens is early on if it's a real popular president doing well the market stays up,' Hirsch says. 'If you've got someone really unpopular come election time and they get ousted, there's a rally in November/December, sort of a 'ding dong the witch is dead' type of rally.' As for those five times when the trend didn't hold, only two were particularly bad years: 1932 which saw the removal of Herbert Hoover and 1940 when World War II was already raging in Europe. It's not just the election that offers insight into the next eleven and a half months. Hirsch notes that the end of the 'deflation fear period' should be a good sign in the short-term, but further down the road it 'puts a cap on things.' He cites a housing market that picked up and then flat-lined, consumer confidence that has come up (but not enough), and improving unemployment numbers as a sign that the economy is on the mend. He says it is 'good enough to keep us from having a really bad year' but not good enough to see a breakout to new highs. Specifically Hirsch is looking at 5-10% growth year-over-year, with a Dow target somewhere between 13,000 and 13,500. Still, he cautions the economy, the election, Europe and any number of other international factors could lead to amended forecasts in either direction. Then there's the market volatility — the same that plagued investors throughout 2011. Hirsch says it's here to stay again in 2012. 'Come spring you start looking for a technical trigger,' says Hirsch. 'Get a little bit more on the sidelines, take some profits, cover yourself...and then get back in for the year-end rally...Trade the seasons, trade the range and you should do okay.' How are you playing the election year, the economy and the volatility? Tell us on our Facebook page or in the comments below. Related Quotes: ^DJI 12,428.26 -21.19 -0.17% ^IXIC 2,715.99 +5.23 +0.19% ^GSPC 1,291.70 -0.78 -0.06%

Oil Student Loan Crisis Looms: FICO Risk Survey

Oil Daily Ticker Despite recent headlines cheering positive trends in the economy, there is still much to be concerned about, according to FICO's new quarterly survey of bank risk professionals. More than two-thirds of risk managers are seriously concerned about the debt loads held by students in the country. 67% of respondents believe delinquencies of student loans will rise, up a considerable 19% from the previous survey. 'They are worried about the amount of student loans that are out there and the ability of those students to repay them,' says Mark Greene, CEO of FICO, which provides credit scores used by both consumers and creditors and is widely considered the industry standard. With tuition prices on the rise each and every year, it is no surprise that the total amount borrowed is also on the upswing. The student who graduated in the class of 2009 had an average of $24,000 in student loans. But that's just the average. Some students are accountable for sums totaling $100,000. (See: The Economic Agony of Today's Twenty-Somethings) The Federal Reserve reported last year that student debt has actually surpassed credit card debt and predicts the total amount owed has topped $1 trillion. Greene's advice to students is: 'Be careful what you borrow.' 'Clearly education has a great return on investment so there is no suggestion you should avoid taking out loans, but be careful what you are getting into,' he says. 'Manage your student loans as carefully as you would your mortgage, your credit card or something else.' Other problem areas listed in the survey include credit card debt and mortgage debt. Credit card debt increased 8.5% to $5.6 billion in November from October, the biggest gain since March 2008. 45% of risk managers surveyed expect credit card delinquencies to rise while 21% expect a decline. And 54% of respondents believe credit card balances will rise. Those figures are more pessimistic than the previous quarter. As for mortgage debt, 47% of risk managers predict mortgage delinquencies will rise while 13% expect to see a decrease. 'If you are looking for risk managers to declare that we've turned the corner, they are not declaring that yet,' says Greene. Do you think the economy is improving or still has a long way to go? More from The Daily Ticker: Forget Harvard and a 4-Year Degree, You Can Make More as a Plumber in the Long Run, Says Prof. Kotlikoff Brain Drain: Most College Students Learn Next to Nothing, New Study Says Jame's Altucher's 8 Alternatives to College Related Quotes: ^GSPC 1,292.18 -0.30 -0.02% BAC 6.76 -0.11 -1.60% C 31.36 +0.09 +0.29% GS 98.96 -0.80 -0.80% JPM 36.44 -0.22 -0.60% WFC 29.54 -0.08 -0.29% PNC 61.51 +0.21 +0.34% FAZ 31.80 +0.23 +0.72% FAS 75.30 -0.53 -0.70% XLF 13.83 -0.04 -0.26% ^DJI 12,432.54 -16.91 -0.14% DFS 26.16 +0.30 +1.16% V 100.99 +1.88 +1.90% MA 342.76 +1.29 +0.38% MS 16.92 -0.18 -1.05%

Noticias Is the Euro Decoupling From U.S. Stocks?

Noticias Is the Euro Decoupling From U.S. Stocks? Companies: EUR/USD S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite RELATED QUOTES Symbol Price Change EURUSD=X 1.2832 +0.0123 ^GSPC 1,291.87 -0.61 ^IXIC 2,715.73 +4.97 ^DJI 12,432.35 -17.10 FXE 127.78 +1.22 For much of the last 15 years the S&P 500 and euro (the EU currency) have been moving in the same direction. Since its May 4, 2011 high (the euro topped two days after U.S. stocks) the euro has tumbled 15%. Worse yet, the euro has been falling over the past few weeks even though the S&P has remained stable. Will the S&P soon catch up with the euro, or is the euro about to decouple its positive correlation with U.S. equities? Euro Problems Euro problems are the reason for the bad euro season. U.S. stocks got to enjoy the Santa Claus Rally while the euro was stuck with debt concerns that include: - Eurozone governments need to refinance more than $1.3 trillion in debt in 2012. - Yields on Italian bonds crept up about 7% again (above 7% yields send Greece into a tailspin). - Standard & Poor's is expected to strip France of its AAA rating as early as this month. - Spain's banks need to raise an extra $65 billion to cover bad property loans. - In February, Italy needs to sell more debt than could be covered even if investors used all the proceeds of maturing securities to buy the bonds. Euro Hope Things are so bad for the euro (EURUSD=X), they are good. So it seems at least. The chart below shows the euro holdings of the 'smart' and 'dumb' money published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The first gray graph shows total non-reportable short positions. Non-reportable are small traders considered the dumb money. The second gray graph shows reportable commercial short positions. Commercial traders are the 'pros' that actually provide a commodity or instrument and are considered the smart money. The data shows that non-reportable short positions are pretty high right now (data as of Tuesday) while commercial traders have closed nearly all their short positions. Based on COT sentiment data, the euro should be close to a bottom, at least a temporary one. Cause for U.S. Stock Rally? But wouldn't a rising euro translate into rising U.S. stocks? Under normal circumstances, yes it would. A look at the chart below shows that a rising euro usually correlates with a rising S&P 500. The red boxes highlight periods of falling euro and rising S&P (such as lately). The green box identifies a period of time when a rising euro (NYSEArca: FXE - News) coincided with falling (even rapidly falling) U.S. stock prices. This happened from October 2007 - July 2008. Putting Odds in Your Favor It's no secret that I declared the rally from the October lows to be a counter trend rally. Back on October 2, I stated via the ETF Profit Strategy updated that: 'I don't think October will 'kill' this bear market, but it should spur a powerful counter trend rally. Towards the end of this rally Wall Street may applaud the Fed for launching Operation Twist and QE3 may be considered unnecessary. This kind of positive environment would be fertile soil for the next bear market leg (Q1 or Q2 2012). From a technical point of view this counter trend rally should end somewhere around 1,275 - 1,300.' To identify high-probability trade setups, I like to see technicals, sentiment, and seasonality point in the same direction, such as they did in early October. From a seasonal perspective, October has the reputation of a 'bear market killer.' Sentiment polls showed the most bearish readings in over a year and the VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) was close to the 2010 high. At the same time, the S&P had reached rock bottom support. Based on the weight of evidence, the October 2 ETF Profit Strategy update also predicted that: 'The ideal market bottom would see the S&P dip below 1,088 intraday followed by a strong recovery and a close above 1,088.' On October 4, the S&P briefly dipped below 1,088 and closed the day at 1,124. A massive counter trend rally was born that day. The Next Setup? Seasonality is once again turning bearish (or at the very least less bullish). Since 2002, the S&P reached a January top followed by a drop greater than 8% five (out of ten) times. 51.1% of all investment advisors and newsletter-writing colleagues (polled by II) are bullish on stocks (the highest reading since May 3) while only 17% of individual investors (polled by AAII) are bearish, the second lowest reading in six years. From a technical point of view, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC - News) is about to reach a daunting resistance cluster comprised of Fibonacci levels and various long and short-term trend lines. The Dow (DJI: ^DJI - News) is about to encounter two trend lines that go back nearly five years. The resistance clusters for the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC - News), Russell 2000 (NYSEArca: IJR - News), and financials (NYSEArca: XLF - News) are not as glaring but they're there. The only thing that doesn't quite fit into the equation is the euro's sentiment data illustrated above. Nevertheless, the weight of evidence suggests that a turnaround for stocks, and possibly another significant market top, may be just around the corner. The high probability strategy is to short U.S. stocks as soon as the resistance cluster is reached or support is broken. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter identifies the target of this rally along with a short, mid and long-term outlook and the corresponding ETF profit strategies. 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