Forex Exiting watchdog sees flaws in SEC's rulewriting

Forex Exiting watchdog sees flaws in SEC's rulewriting WASHINGTON, DC (Reuters) - In his final act before departing the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday, the agency's inspector general, David Kotz, criticized how the agency analyzes the economic impact of some of its Dodd-Frank rules. Kotz's criticism, contained in a report, could have ramifications for the SEC, which has lost several court battles over the years because of flaws in how it demonstrates that the benefits of a rule outweigh its costs. 'We found that the extent of quantitative discussion of cost-benefit analyses varied among rulemakings,' Kotz wrote in his report. 'Based on our examination of several Dodd-Frank Act rulemakings, the review found that the SEC sometimes used multiple baselines in its cost-benefit analyses that were ambiguous or internally inconsistent.' Last year, U.S. business groups successfully convinced a federal appeals court to overturn one of the SEC's Dodd-Frank rules that aimed to empower shareholders to more easily nominate directors to corporate boards. In rejecting the rule, the court said the agency failed to properly weigh the economic consequences. Some of the business groups, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, have since raised similar concerns with other rulemakings pending before the SEC. Congress passed the Dodd-Frank act in 2010 to more closely police financial markets and institutions after the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The legislation gives the SEC responsibility to write roughly 100 new rules. Although the SEC is not subject to an express statutory requirement to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of its rules, other laws do require the agency to consider the effects of its rules on capital formation, competition and efficiency. In addition, the SEC must also follow federal rulemaking procedures, such as providing the public with an opportunity to comment on its proposals. This is the second report Kotz has issued looking at the quality of the SEC's cost-benefit analysis. Both reports were issued after certain members of the Senate Banking Committee, including ranking Republican Richard Shelby, voiced concerns about whether regulators were adequately examining the economic impact of Dodd-Frank rules. To determine how well the SEC is faring, Kotz's office retained Albert Kyle, a finance professor at the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business, to help carry out the review. Friday's report covered a sample of Dodd-Frank rulemakings, including a rule allowing shareholders a non-binding vote on compensation, several asset-backed securities rules and two proposals pertaining to the reporting of security-based swap data. Kotz's report was critical of the agency in a number of areas. In one instance, the report cites a memo in which former General Counsel David Becker gave his opinion that the SEC should do thorough cost-benefit analyses on rules that are not explicitly required by Congress. Rules mandated by Congress, however, generally would not need the same level of cost-benefit research, the memo said. The report suggested that the agency should reconsider these guidelines, or else it risks 'not fulfilling the essential purposes of such analyses.' SEC management, in a written response to the report, disagreed with that point. 'We believe Professor Kyle's opinion fails to appreciate both the practical limitations on the scope of cost-benefit a regulator can conduct, and the distinct roles of Congress and administrative agencies,' they said. 'We think it is entirely sensible ... for the staff to focus its attention and the commission's limited resources on matters that the commission has the authority to decide.' Kotz made other recommendations, including using a single consistent baseline in the cost-benefit analysis process and having economists provide more input. SEC spokesman John Nester declined to comment beyond the SEC comments in the report. (Reporting By Sarah N. Lynch; Editing by Steve Orlofsky, Gary Hill)

Forex Analysis: Oil price rise raises specter of global recession

Forex Analysis: Oil price rise raises specter of global recession LONDON (Reuters) - A jump in energy prices is jamming the slow-turning cogs of an economic recovery in the West, but that may be nothing compared to the economic shock an Israeli attack on Iran would cause. Oil rose to a 10-month high above $125 a barrel Friday, prompting responses from policymakers around the world including U.S. President Barack Obama, watching U.S. gasoline prices follow crude to push toward $4 a gallon in an election year. Europe may have more to fear as its fragile economic growth falters and Greece, Italy and Spain look for alternative sources to the crude they currently import from Iran, where an EU oil embargo, intended to make Iran abandon what the West fears are efforts to develop nuclear weapons, comes into force in June. In euro terms, Brent crude rose to an all-time high of 93.60 euros this week, topping its 2008 record. 'The West's determination to prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is coming at a price - a price that might include a second global recession triggered by an oil shock,' said David Hufton from the oil brokerage PVM. In dollar terms, oil prices are still some $20 a barrel short of their 2008 record of $147. But the latest Reuters monthly survey will Monday show oil analysts revising up their predictions for Brent crude by $3 since the previous month. Such a change is big in a poll of over 30 analysts, and last happened at the peak of the Libyan war in May. Ian Taylor, head of the world's biggest oil trading house Vitol, told Reuters this week prices could spike as high as $150 a barrel if Iran's arch-enemy Israel launched a strike at its nuclear facilities - an option Israel has declined to rule out. 'I used to think this would never happen,' Taylor said, 'but everyone you speak to says the Israelis will have a go at striking at Iranian nuclear sites. 'The day that happens, you have to believe the Iranians throw a few mines in the Strait of Hormuz and, for a few hours at least or maybe more, I cannot see a scenario where prices would not be at that sort of level ($150).' The U.N. nuclear watchdog said Friday Iran had sharply stepped up its uranium enrichment, which Iran insists is solely for civilian purposes. Israel has warned that, by putting much of its nuclear program underground, Iran is approaching a 'zone of immunity,' but it has also said any decision to attack is 'very far off.' Wall Street bank Merrill Lynch said this week that oil prices could climb to $200 over the next five years. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> So far this year, dollar prices for Brent crude have risen by more than 15 percent, pushed up mainly by fears about Iran. The loss of supply from three small and mid-sized producers suffering internal turmoil - Syria, Yemen and South Sudan - has added to the supply worries. WEAK GROWTH, HIGH PRICES A stabilization of the U.S. economy may explain some of the rise in oil prices, but the global economy is growing far more slowly now than at this time last year, yet crude prices are just as high. World equities and oil have typically been closely correlated since 2008 because both were driven by global demand. However, as oil prices start to respond to supply problems, the correlation is evaporating, and the global economy is already paying a high price. Data published this week showed unexpectedly weak activity in Europe's most powerful economy, Germany, and in France, sparking fresh worries that the region could tip into recession. Few have forgotten that in 2008, within six months of hitting its all-time high, oil plunged as low as $35 a barrel with the onset of the global credit crisis. In the United States, demand for refined oil products is close to its lowest level in nearly 15 years, indicating that motorists are cutting back their mileage. 'The price spike is going to be a challenge for politicians in the West running for re-election,' said Olivier Jakob from the Petromatrix consultancy. He said developed countries would find it hard to justify a release of strategic oil stocks similar to what they did in 2011. Unlike a year ago, when Libyan oil exports were disrupted by a war, this year 'there is ... instead a voluntary restriction on buying from a specific country,' said Jakob. Other than a release of oil stocks, developed countries could resort to yet another round of monetary easing, to which emerging markets will respond with quantitative tightening, price controls and subsidies, said analysts from HSBC. 'In terms of fiscal health, it would seem that Asia is better placed than other regions to deal with an oil price shock,' HSBC said in a note last week.

Forex Is the Euro Decoupling From U.S. Stocks?

Forex Is the Euro Decoupling From U.S. Stocks? Companies: EUR/USD S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite RELATED QUOTES Symbol Price Change EURUSD=X 1.2832 +0.0123 ^GSPC 1,291.87 -0.61 ^IXIC 2,715.73 +4.97 ^DJI 12,432.35 -17.10 FXE 127.78 +1.22 For much of the last 15 years the S&P 500 and euro (the EU currency) have been moving in the same direction. Since its May 4, 2011 high (the euro topped two days after U.S. stocks) the euro has tumbled 15%. Worse yet, the euro has been falling over the past few weeks even though the S&P has remained stable. Will the S&P soon catch up with the euro, or is the euro about to decouple its positive correlation with U.S. equities? Euro Problems Euro problems are the reason for the bad euro season. U.S. stocks got to enjoy the Santa Claus Rally while the euro was stuck with debt concerns that include: - Eurozone governments need to refinance more than $1.3 trillion in debt in 2012. - Yields on Italian bonds crept up about 7% again (above 7% yields send Greece into a tailspin). - Standard & Poor's is expected to strip France of its AAA rating as early as this month. - Spain's banks need to raise an extra $65 billion to cover bad property loans. - In February, Italy needs to sell more debt than could be covered even if investors used all the proceeds of maturing securities to buy the bonds. Euro Hope Things are so bad for the euro (EURUSD=X), they are good. So it seems at least. The chart below shows the euro holdings of the 'smart' and 'dumb' money published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The first gray graph shows total non-reportable short positions. Non-reportable are small traders considered the dumb money. The second gray graph shows reportable commercial short positions. Commercial traders are the 'pros' that actually provide a commodity or instrument and are considered the smart money. The data shows that non-reportable short positions are pretty high right now (data as of Tuesday) while commercial traders have closed nearly all their short positions. Based on COT sentiment data, the euro should be close to a bottom, at least a temporary one. Cause for U.S. Stock Rally? But wouldn't a rising euro translate into rising U.S. stocks? Under normal circumstances, yes it would. A look at the chart below shows that a rising euro usually correlates with a rising S&P 500. The red boxes highlight periods of falling euro and rising S&P (such as lately). The green box identifies a period of time when a rising euro (NYSEArca: FXE - News) coincided with falling (even rapidly falling) U.S. stock prices. This happened from October 2007 - July 2008. Putting Odds in Your Favor It's no secret that I declared the rally from the October lows to be a counter trend rally. Back on October 2, I stated via the ETF Profit Strategy updated that: 'I don't think October will 'kill' this bear market, but it should spur a powerful counter trend rally. Towards the end of this rally Wall Street may applaud the Fed for launching Operation Twist and QE3 may be considered unnecessary. This kind of positive environment would be fertile soil for the next bear market leg (Q1 or Q2 2012). From a technical point of view this counter trend rally should end somewhere around 1,275 - 1,300.' To identify high-probability trade setups, I like to see technicals, sentiment, and seasonality point in the same direction, such as they did in early October. From a seasonal perspective, October has the reputation of a 'bear market killer.' Sentiment polls showed the most bearish readings in over a year and the VIX (Chicago Options: ^VIX) was close to the 2010 high. At the same time, the S&P had reached rock bottom support. Based on the weight of evidence, the October 2 ETF Profit Strategy update also predicted that: 'The ideal market bottom would see the S&P dip below 1,088 intraday followed by a strong recovery and a close above 1,088.' On October 4, the S&P briefly dipped below 1,088 and closed the day at 1,124. A massive counter trend rally was born that day. The Next Setup? Seasonality is once again turning bearish (or at the very least less bullish). Since 2002, the S&P reached a January top followed by a drop greater than 8% five (out of ten) times. 51.1% of all investment advisors and newsletter-writing colleagues (polled by II) are bullish on stocks (the highest reading since May 3) while only 17% of individual investors (polled by AAII) are bearish, the second lowest reading in six years. From a technical point of view, the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC - News) is about to reach a daunting resistance cluster comprised of Fibonacci levels and various long and short-term trend lines. The Dow (DJI: ^DJI - News) is about to encounter two trend lines that go back nearly five years. The resistance clusters for the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC - News), Russell 2000 (NYSEArca: IJR - News), and financials (NYSEArca: XLF - News) are not as glaring but they're there. The only thing that doesn't quite fit into the equation is the euro's sentiment data illustrated above. Nevertheless, the weight of evidence suggests that a turnaround for stocks, and possibly another significant market top, may be just around the corner. The high probability strategy is to short U.S. stocks as soon as the resistance cluster is reached or support is broken. The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter identifies the target of this rally along with a short, mid and long-term outlook and the corresponding ETF profit strategies.

Earn BRICS call for open selection of next World Bank chief

Earn BRICS call for open selection of next World Bank chief MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - A meeting of BRICS major emerging countries discussed the selection process of the next head of the World Bank and emphasized it should be open to all countries, rejecting the tradition that the job automatically goes to an American, a senior BRIC official said on Saturday. The official, speaking after a meeting of the BRICS - Russia, South Africa, Brazil, India and China - said the United States had not circulated the name of its proposed candidate for the World Bank. Asked whether emerging economies could field their own candidate for the post, the official said: 'That is certainly a discussion we will have.' (Reporting By Lesley Wroughton; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Oil Lloyds chief executive skips annual bonus

Oil LONDON (AP) -- The chief executive of Lloyds Banking Group, which was rescued by British taxpayers during the credit crisis, says he won't take his annual bonus for 2011. Antonio Horta-Osorio said Friday he's doing that because he took a leave of absence, not specifically in response to Prime Minister David Cameron's recent call for restraint on executive pay. Horta-Osorio took two months off last year as he suffered from sleeping problems. He did not disclose the amount in a bonus that he is turning down, but said future payments should take into account Britain's 'tough financial circumstances.' His pay and bonus entitlement will be disclosed next month in the group's annual report. British taxpayers still hold a 40 percent stake in the bank.

Oil Why Brand Value Still Matters

Oil Why Brand Value Still Matters RELATED QUOTES Symbol Price Change PVH 74.26 +0.36 RL 143.11 -1.43 PVH's (NYSE: PVH - News) 2010 acquisition of Tommy Hilfiger turned out to be a good long-term prospect. PVH posted a handsome growth in profits in its third quarter, spurred mainly by Tommy's international sales. The growth speaks volumes for PVH, known to be a high-end clothier trying to sail through a struggling, cash-strapped economy. Let us take a closer look at what makes PVH tick. Good third-quarter showing PVH's net income came in at $112.2 million, a 12% rise from $99.8 million in the year-ago period. Continued healthy sales for both its Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands of clothes spurred this growth. Strong sales, both domestic and international, also boosted revenue by 9% from last year to $1.65 billion. This even exceeded management expectations. Tommy Hilfiger, in particular, went a notch ahead of Calvin Klein, as the former's strong international sales base led it to post an earnings increase of 27% over Calvin Klein's 13%. Naturally, PVH felt confident enough to raise its full-year outlook. What spurred the growth Tommy Hilfiger's strong international sales were a major boost to PVH's third-quarter figures, as the brand registered a 17% growth in revenue over last year, spurred by key markets such as the United Kingdom, Italy, and France. Of course, one of the main reasons behind Tommy Hilfiger's acquisition was because the former is known to generate a large chunk of its revenue from international markets. But then, its other flagship brand Calvin Klein was not far behind either as its revenues went up by a healthy 11%. However, PVH needs to check back on its competitors' progress as well. For instance, rival Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL - News) also cashed in on robust sales figures to post a 14% increase in second-quarter profits. PVH needs to be particularly wary of Ralph Lauren, which is a highly aspirational brand, and whose overseas revenue is around 38% of the consolidated total. Ralph Lauren also caters to a similarly wealthy segment and is in the process of launching new brands such as Lauren footwear. The Foolish conclusion PVH is certainly not getting complacent as it aims to spend around $5 million more than what it did last year on international marketing, with the stress being on holiday campaigning through television and cinema. This is one company that has brand recall, caters to the high-end segment that is not really 'discount-dependant,' and has structured future plans. It may be a good idea to stock up on PVH. Fool contributor Subhadeep Ghose does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this article. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Signals Fitch cuts Italy, Spain, other euro zone ratings

Signals Fitch cuts Italy, Spain, other euro zone ratings RELATED QUOTES Symbol Price Change TRI 27.82 -0.10 Related Content People wait to enter a government job centre in Malaga, southern Spain, January 27, 2012. REUTERS/Jon Nazca People wait to enter a government job centre in Malaga, southern Spain, January 27, 2012. REUTERS/Jon Nazca NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fitch downgraded the sovereign credit ratings of Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia and Spain on Friday, indicating there was a 1-in-2 chance of further cuts in the next two years. In a statement, the ratings agency said the affected countries were vulnerable in the near-term to monetary and financial shocks. 'Consequently, these sovereigns do not, in Fitch's view, accrue the full benefits of the euro's reserve currency status,' it said. Fitch cut Italy's rating to A-minus from A-plus; Spain to A from AA-minus; Belgium to AA from AA-plus; Slovenia to A from AA-minus and Cyprus to BBB-minus from BBB, leaving the small island nation just one notch above junk status. Ireland's rating of BBB-plus was affirmed. All of the ratings were given negative outlooks. Fitch said it had weighed up a worsening economic outlook in much of the euro zone against the European Central Bank's December move to flood the banking sector with cheap three-year money and austerity efforts by governments to curb their debts. 'Overall, today's rating actions balance the marked deterioration in the economic outlook with both the substantive policy initiatives at the national level to address macro-financial and fiscal imbalances, and the initial success of the ECB's three-year Long-Term Refinancing Operation in easing near-term sovereign and bank funding pressures,' Fitch said. Two weeks ago, Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit ratings of nine euro zone countries, stripping France and Austria of their coveted triple-A status but not EU paymaster Germany, and pushing struggling Portugal into junk territory. With nearly half a trillion euros of ECB liquidity coursing through the financial system, some of which has apparently gone into euro zone government bonds, and with hopes of a deal to write down a slab of Greece's mountainous debt, even that sweeping ratings action had little market impact. The euro briefly pared gains against the dollar after Fitch cut the five euro zone sovereigns but soon jumped to a session high of $1.3208, according to Reuters data, its highest since December 13. Italy is widely seen as the tipping point for the euro zone. If it slid towards default, the whole currency project would be threatened. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, a technocrat who has won plaudits for his economic reform drive, said he reacted to Fitch's downgrade of Italy with 'detached serenity.' 'They signal things that are not particularly new, for example, that Italy has a very high debt as a percentage of GDP and they signal that the way the euro zone is governed as a whole is not perfect and we knew that too,' he said during a live interview on Italian television. 'They also say things that give a positive view of what is being done in Italy because there is much appreciation for policies of this government and this parliament,' he said. Fitch said of Italy: 'A more severe rating action was forestalled by the strong commitment of the Italian government to reducing the budget deficit and to implementing structural reform as well as the significant easing of near-term financing risks as a result of the ECB's 3-year Longer-term Refinancing Operation.' (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos, Daniel Bases, Philip Pullela and Pam Niimi, writing by Mike Peacock, Editing by James Dalgleish)

Forex Quest for the golden cross

Forex Quest for the golden cross RELATED QUOTES Symbol Price Change MA 348.79 +0.96 XOM 85.83 -0.94 PFE 21.48 -0.15 K 49.73 -0.26 TRI 27.82 -0.10 By Rodrigo Campos NEW YORK (Reuters) - January has turned out strong for equities with just two trading days to go. If you're afraid to miss the ride, there's still time to jump in. You just might want to wear a neck brace. The new year lured buyers into growth-related sectors, the ones that were more beaten down last year. The economy is getting better, but not dramatically. Earnings are beating expectations, but at a lower rate than in recent quarters. Nothing too bad is coming out of Europe's debt crisis - and nothing good, either - at least not yet. 'No one item is a major positive, but collectively, it's been enough to tilt it towards net buying,' said John Schlitz, chief market technician at Instinet in New York. Still, relatively weak volume and a six-month high hit this week make some doubt that the gains are sustainable. But then there's the golden cross. Many market skeptics take notice when this technical indicator, a holy grail of sorts for many technicians, shows up on the horizon. As early as Monday, the rising 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 could tick above its rising 200-day moving average. This occurrence - known as a golden cross - means the medium-term momentum is increasingly bullish. You have a good chance of making money in the next six months if you put it to work in large-cap stocks. In the last 50 years, according to data compiled by Birinyi Associates, a golden cross on the S&P 500 has augured further gains six months ahead in eight out of 10 times. The average gain has been 6.6 percent. That means the benchmark is on solid footing to not only hold onto the 14 percent advance over the last nine weeks, but to flirt with 1,400, a level it hasn't hit since mid-2008. The gains, as expected, would not be in a straight line. But any weakness could be used by long-term investors as buying opportunities. 'The cross is an intermediate bullish event,' Schlitz said. 'You have to interpret it as constructive, but I caution people to take a bullish stance, if they have a short-term horizon .' GREECE, U.S. PAYROLLS AND MOMENTUM Less than halfway into the earnings season and with Greek debt talks over the weekend, payrolls data next week and the S&P 500 near its highest since July, there's plenty of room for something to go wrong. If that happens, the market could easily give back some of its recent advance. But the benchmark's recent rally and momentum shift allow for a pullback before the technical picture deteriorates. 'We bounced off 1,325, which is resistance. We're testing 1,310, which should be support. We are stuck in that range,' said Ken Polcari, managing director at ICAP Equities in New York. 'If over the weekend, Greece comes out with another big nothing, then you will see further weakness next week,' he said. 'A 1 (percent) or 2 percent pullback isn't out of the question or out of line.' On Friday, the S&P 500 (Chicago Options:^INX - News) and the Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) closed their fourth consecutive week of gains, while the Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) dipped and capped three weeks of gains. For the day, the Dow dropped 74.17 points, or 0.58 percent, to close at 12,660.46. The S&P 500 fell 2.10 points, or 0.16 percent, to 1,316.33. But the Nasdaq gained 11.27 points, or 0.40 percent, to end at 2,816.55. For the week, the Dow slipped 0.47 percent, while the S&P 500 inched up 0.07 percent and the Nasdaq jumped 1.07 percent. A DATA-PACKED EARNINGS WEEK Next week is filled with heavy-hitting data on the housing, manufacturing and employment sectors. Personal income and consumption on Monday will be followed by the S&P/Case-Shiller home prices index, consumer confidence and the Chicago PMI - all on Tuesday. Wednesday will bring the Institute for Supply Management index on U.S. manufacturing and the first of three key readings on the labor market - namely, the ADP private-sector employment report. Jobless claims on Thursday will give way on Friday to the U.S. government's non-farm payrolls report. The forecast calls for a net gain of 150,000 jobs in January, according to economists polled by Reuters. Another hectic earnings week will kick into gear with almost a fifth of the S&P 500 components posting quarterly results. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM - News), Amazon (NasdaqGS:AMZN - News), UPS (NYSE:UPS - News), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE - News), Kellogg (NYSE:K - News) and MasterCard (NYSE:MA - News) are among the names most likely to grab the headlines. With almost 200 companies' reports in so far, about 59 percent have beaten earnings expectations - down from about 70 percent in recent quarters. (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak and Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Jan Paschal)